On Saturday, November 22, 2025, Chelsea FC will visit Turf Moor in Burnley, Lancashire, for a high-stakes Premier League encounter against Burnley FC. Kickoff is set for 07:30 UTC, and the stakes couldn’t be higher: Chelsea sits third in the table, chasing a top-four finish, while Burnley clings to survival in 19th place, just one point clear of the relegation zone. The twist? Despite Burnley’s gritty home form, Chelsea hasn’t lost to them since 2017 — and has won all four of their last visits to Turf Moor, including a 4-1 thrashing in their most recent meeting.
Contrasting Paths Into Matchweek 12
It’s hard to imagine two teams more divergent in momentum. Burnley, under manager Scott Parker, has lost three of their last four league games, including a 2-3 home defeat to West Ham United on November 8. Their defense, once the backbone of their Championship success, has collapsed in the Premier League — only two clean sheets in 31 matches. They’ve scored in five of seven home games this season, but conceding 1.00 goal per home match isn’t enough against top-half sides.
Meanwhile, Chelsea, led by Enzo Maresca, are on fire. A 3-0 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers on November 8 extended their winning streak to seven consecutive Premier League matches starting at 12:30 pm on Saturdays. Their away form? Even better. They’ve kept clean sheets in their last two road games and conceded just 0.90 goals per away match over the past 10. The Blues have also scored 1.50 goals per away game — and in six straight away matches, they’ve netted more than 1.5 goals.
Injuries and Tactical Shifts
Both sides are missing key pieces. Burnley will be without center-back Jordan Beyer (24), full-back Connor Roberts (29), and striker Zeki Amdouni (25). Their defensive depth is already thin — and without Beyer, their aerial presence weakens against Chelsea’s physical forwards.
Chelsea is missing their creative engine: Cole Palmer (23), playmaker Enzo Fernández (24), and winger Pedro Neto (25). But here’s the surprise — they’re not missing a beat. João Pedro, their summer signing from Brazil, has stepped into the striker role with six goals in his last seven appearances. Estevao, the young Portuguese winger, has also found his rhythm, contributing three assists in his last four games. Maresca’s side is playing with confidence, not just talent.
History Favors the Blues — But Turf Moor Has a Heart
At Turf Moor, Burnley’s resilience isn’t just folklore — it’s fact. They’ve won three of their last 10 home games, but only one of those victories came against a top-half team. Chelsea, on the other hand, has dominated here. Their 4-1 win in 2024 wasn’t an anomaly; it was a pattern. In nine of the last 10 meetings between these sides, total goals have exceeded 2.5. That’s not luck — it’s style. Chelsea attacks relentlessly, and Burnley, even when defending deep, tends to push forward in search of a goal.
And yet… Burnley’s home record shows something curious. They’ve averaged 1.50 goals scored per home match this season — higher than their overall average. They’re not passive. They’re desperate. And desperation can breed moments of brilliance. In their 2-3 loss to West Ham, they scored twice from set pieces. Against Liverpool, they held the champions to a 1-1 draw. This isn’t a team that rolls over.
Betting Markets and Expert Predictions
The odds tell the story: Chelsea to win is the overwhelming favorite, with most bookmakers offering odds between 1.50 and 1.60. The consensus? Over 2.5 goals. Multiple sources — Sportskeeda, Scores24, and Football Predictions — all predict a Chelsea win by a margin of 1-3 goals. Forebet’s data shows over 2.5 goals in four of Burnley’s last six matches, while Chelsea has scored two or more in 67% of their last six.
Betting analysts are split on whether Burnley will score. But the smart money says yes. Both teams to score (BTTS) is listed at 1.85 — and it’s hard to ignore that Burnley has scored in 71% of their home games. The most intriguing bet? Over 3.5 yellow cards. Burnley has averaged 1.7 yellows per game in their last seven — and Maresca’s side isn’t known for gentle play.
What Comes After? The Bigger Picture
Chelsea’s next fixture? A Champions League clash with FC Barcelona on November 26. That’s looming large. But Maresca has shown he won’t rotate for convenience — he’s building momentum. He’s got depth. He’s got confidence. And he’s got players like João Pedro and Estevao who are thriving under pressure.
For Burnley? This is a must-win if they’re to stay alive. Scott Parker’s men are out of sync, but they’ve got something rare: a fanbase that still believes. Turf Moor will be loud. The rain might come. And if Burnley scores early? Anything can happen. But history, form, and firepower all point in one direction.
Final Thoughts
Chelsea aren’t just better — they’re in a different league. Burnley’s heart won’t be enough to overcome their defensive frailties against a side that’s scoring at will. Expect a 2-1 or 1-3 result. Expect goals. Expect yellow cards. And expect the Blues to leave Lancashire with three more points — and their Champions League dreams still alive.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Chelsea so strong away from home this season?
Chelsea’s away form has improved due to tactical discipline under Enzo Maresca, with a compact midfield and quick transitions. Their new signings, particularly João Pedro and Estevao, have thrived in counter-attacking roles. They’ve kept clean sheets in their last two away games and conceded fewer than one goal per match on the road — a stark contrast to their early-season struggles.
How has Burnley’s defense deteriorated since returning to the Premier League?
Burnley’s defense, once renowned for its organization under Sean Dyche, has lost its structure without key players like James Tarkowski and Ben Mee. In 31 Premier League matches, they’ve kept only two clean sheets. Their average of 1.00 goals conceded per home game sounds decent — until you realize they’re facing top-tier attacks, and their lack of pace and aerial dominance leaves them exposed.
What’s the significance of Chelsea’s Saturday 12:30 pm win streak?
Chelsea have won all seven of their Premier League matches starting at 12:30 pm on Saturdays this season — a pattern that suggests either superior conditioning, better preparation for midday games, or psychological edge. This isn’t coincidence. Their squad depth allows for optimal recovery between matches, and Maresca’s pre-match routines appear tailored for these slots.
Is Burnley’s home record misleadingly positive?
Yes. While Burnley has scored in five of seven home games, three of those were against bottom-half teams like Southampton and Nottingham Forest. Against top-six sides, they’ve lost all three — including 0-2 to Arsenal and 1-2 to Liverpool. Their home form looks better than it is because they’ve avoided the elite — until now.
How will Chelsea manage without Palmer and Fernández?
Chelsea have adapted by using Raheem Sterling and Noni Madueke as dual wide threats, while Marc Cucurella has pushed higher into midfield. The midfield trio of Enzo Maresca’s preferred 4-2-3-1 — Nkunku, Kobbie Mainoo, and Chilwell — has filled the gaps with relentless pressing and intelligent movement. They’re not as creative, but they’re more balanced.
What’s the most likely scoreline, and why?
Most analysts predict a 2-1 or 1-3 win for Chelsea. The 2-1 scenario fits Burnley’s tendency to score at home and Chelsea’s habit of winning narrow away games. But given Chelsea’s attacking output and Burnley’s shaky defense, 1-3 is more probable — especially if João Pedro scores early and Chelsea controls the tempo after halftime.
